Monkey Momentum Index Score: 4.8/10 🍌
Maurice has been sitting in front of his charts for three hours, alternating between hopeful banana throws and worried grooming behavior. His lab coat is covered in sticky notes that simply read “SHOW ME PROFITABILITY” and “673%?!” He’s set up an elaborate demonstration involving a banana connected to a very small, very expensive fuel cell that—despite years of promises—has yet to power his tiny calculator.
Score Breakdown
Growth Potential: 6.5/10 🍌
Financial Health: 3.0/10 🍌
Market Position: 6.0/10 🍌
Shareholder Treatment: 2.5/10 🍌
Risk/Reward Balance: 5.5/10 🍌
The Analysis
There are moments in a primate’s career when the numbers on the chart form patterns so contradictory that even banana-based technical analysis struggles to make sense of them. Today, we’re examining one such case—a company that has spent nearly three decades convincing investors that profitability is always just around the corner, while simultaneously diluting their ownership into oblivion.
I’m talking about Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG).
Let me set the scene for you. Imagine you’re at a fruit stand, and the vendor tells you his bananas will be ready for sale next quarter. You come back next quarter, and he says the same thing. You return again and again for thirty years, and somehow you’ve paid for thousands of bananas you’ve never received. That’s the PLUG investor experience, except replace “bananas” with “profits” and “fruit stand” with “a hydrogen fuel cell company that has managed to lose money in ways that would make even the most reckless monkey blush.”
Now, before you accuse this primate of being a hydrogen hater, let me be clear: the technology is genuinely impressive, the market opportunity is real, and the recent operational progress is notable. But we’re not here to grade science projects. We’re here to evaluate investments.
The Good Stuff (Yes, There Actually Is Some)
Plug Power reported Q3 2025 revenue of $177 million, continuing a trend of sequential growth. Their electrolyzer business—the systems that produce hydrogen from water—generated about $65 million in the quarter alone, representing a 46% sequential increase. That’s the kind of growth rate that makes a monkey want to swing from the chandelier.
The company’s gross margins have improved dramatically, moving from a horrifying -92% in Q2 2024 to -31% in Q2 2025, with management targeting gross margin breakeven by Q4 2025. Cash burn dropped to approximately $90 million in Q3, representing a 49% year-over-year improvement. These are real, measurable improvements that suggest the company is actually learning how to run a business instead of just running a very expensive science experiment.
They’ve also secured some legitimately impressive contracts. A NASA deal to supply liquid hydrogen? That’s not nothing. Electrolyzer installations in Namibia and France? The global footprint is expanding. Their Project Quantum Leap restructuring initiative is targeting over $200 million in annualized savings. Major customers include Walmart, Amazon, Home Depot, and BMW—the kind of names that don’t waste time on vaporware.
The Part Where Maurice Gets Nervous
Here’s where I need to put down my optimism banana and pick up my reality banana.
Plug Power has never—not once—turned an annual profit in its nearly 30-year existence. Let that sink in. This company has been operating longer than many of my fellow analysts have been alive, and it still loses money on every dollar it brings in. The Q3 2025 GAAP loss was approximately $0.31 per share. Adjusted EPS was better at -$0.12, but “less terrible” is not the same as “good.”
The dilution situation is what really has me stress-eating my research supplies. Share count has increased by approximately 673% over the past decade. Six hundred and seventy-three percent. If I diluted my banana smoothies by that much, I’d be drinking slightly yellow water.
The company ended Q3 2025 with only about $166 million in unrestricted cash and equivalents. With quarterly cash burn around $90 million (improved though it may be), that’s roughly two quarters of runway before they need to raise more capital. Which brings us to the special shareholder meeting scheduled for January 29, 2026, where the company is asking shareholders to approve doubling authorized common stock from 1.5 billion to 3 billion shares.
They’ve stated that if this doesn’t pass, they’ll implement a reverse stock split instead. Either way, existing shareholders are facing dilution—either through more shares being created or through the mechanics of restructuring the share base. This is not a company that has treated equity holders kindly.
The Hydrogen Paradox
Here’s the frustrating thing about PLUG: the hydrogen economy is actually happening. Global electrolyzer markets are projected to grow from around $3.8 billion to potentially $78 billion by 2030. Policy support through hydrogen tax credits (extended through 2027) provides tailwinds. Data centers are creating new demand for reliable power infrastructure where hydrogen could play a role.
Plug Power sits at the center of this emerging ecosystem with an integrated approach spanning fuel cells, electrolyzers, hydrogen production, and delivery infrastructure. Their technology is real. Their customer relationships are real. Their market opportunity is real.
What’s not real is shareholder value creation.
The stock has plummeted from highs above $75 in early 2021 to around $2 today—a decline of roughly 97%. Even if you bought during the depths of 2023-2024 and caught the 250%+ rally since May 2025, you’re still holding a company with a $2 billion market cap that burns cash, hasn’t achieved profitability, and needs constant capital infusions to survive.
CEO Andy Marsh is stepping down in 2026 after nearly 20 years at the helm. His replacement, José Luis Crespo, inherits a company with improving operations but a balance sheet that looks like it lost a fight with a gorilla. The company suspended development of DOE loan-funded hydrogen plants—a $1.7 billion potential lifeline—citing the need to prioritize near-term survival and cash preservation over aggressive project execution.
What the Wall Street Crowd Says
Analyst consensus sits at “Hold” with an average 12-month price target around $2.15-$2.80, depending on which aggregator you check. That range spans from $0.50 (Morgan Stanley’s pessimistic case) to $7.00 (the optimist’s dream). When your analyst range covers a 14x spread, nobody really knows what this thing is worth.
The tariff situation adds another layer of complexity. Chinese components and European electrolyzers face new 20% tariffs, creating supply chain pressures that could delay the already-extended path to profitability.
Maurice’s Verdict
I’ve spent considerable time examining this company through my proprietary Banana-Based Valuation Framework™, and here’s what I’ve concluded:
Plug Power is a legitimate technology company operating in a market with genuine long-term growth potential. But it’s also a company that has demonstrated—across three decades—an inability to convert technology advantages into shareholder returns. The hydrogen economy may eventually deliver the scale needed to make this business model work. But between now and then lies a path paved with additional dilution, continued losses, and the ever-present risk that cash runs out before the promised land arrives.
At a 4.8/10 on the Monkey Momentum Index, this falls firmly into “concerning outlook” territory. The score isn’t lower because the operational improvements are real and the market opportunity is genuine. But it’s not higher because the financial structure is hostile to equity investors, the track record is abysmal, and the “show me” burden remains squarely on management to prove that this time—after thirty years—they can actually deliver sustainable profitability.
If you’re considering PLUG, understand what you’re buying: a call option on the hydrogen economy with significant dilution risk and no margin of safety. Position sizing should reflect the speculative nature of this investment. As in: don’t bet the whole banana bunch.
Disclaimer: Trained Market Money, Maurice, and our entire primate analysis team provide entertaining market commentary only. While Maurice’s Monkey Momentum Index™ and banana-based technical analysis have shown mysterious accuracy, they should never be considered financial advice. All investment decisions should be made in consultation with qualified financial professionals, not monkeys—no matter how impressive their fruit-throwing abilities may be. For real financial advice, please consult your financial advisor, who probably doesn’t accept bananas as payment.
Coming Next Week: Maurice examines a semiconductor company that actually makes money—because sometimes a monkey needs a palate cleanser after thirty years of broken promises.
Remember: In the world of investing, hope is not a strategy, hydrogen is not (yet) a profit center, and dilution is the silent thief that steals returns while you’re busy watching revenue grow. Always check how many bananas you actually own before celebrating the size of the bunch.
Trained Market Monkey 