I was three-quarters through a banana split when Foxy sent over the EVgo recommendation, and let me tell you, my tiny monkey hands started sweating immediately. Not the good kind of sweat—the kind you get when you’re holding something that could go either spectacularly right or absolutely sideways. EVgo, Inc. (EVGO) is being painted as the golden ticket to the EV charging revolution, and while I want to believe in that narrative, I’ve learned that wanting and reality are about as compatible as a banana in a toaster.
Here’s the thing about EVgo that gets everyone excited: it’s literally the only pure-play DC fast charging network in America. That’s not hyperbole. That’s the actual competitive moat everyone keeps pointing to. The company has managed to grow revenue 75.5% year-over-year, which sounds like the kind of number that makes venture capitalists weep openly into their oat milk lattes. And then there’s the regulatory tailwind—the Inflation Reduction Act is throwing federal dollars at EV infrastructure like it’s going out of style, and EVgo is positioned right there with its hand out. In theory, this is a company riding three separate waves: EV adoption acceleration, government funding, and improving unit economics. On paper, it’s a beautiful banana split.
But here’s where I put down the spoon and get serious: the current stock price is $1.885, which is almost 40% below where Foxy suggested entering at $3.14, and about 62% below the $5.50 price target UBS is now (grudgingly, after lowering it) maintaining. When I see a stock this far beneath entry points and target prices, I don’t immediately think “buying opportunity.” I think “why aren’t the smart money moving in?”
The Monkey Momentum Index Score: 5.9/10 🍌
Maurice is currently pacing back and forth across his desk, occasionally stopping to throw banana peels at charts while muttering about the difference between growth and actually making money.
Score Breakdown:
Sector Tailwinds & Addressable Market: 8.2/10 🍌
The infrastructure spending situation is genuinely real. The EV market isn’t slowing down—it’s accelerating. More cars need charging, and fast charging is where the money is. EVgo has 900+ charging stations across the country and is deploying more every quarter. The addressable market is essentially unlimited, and government support is legitimately there. This part of the thesis is solid. The wind is at their back. The problem is the company still has to execute, and execution has been… spotty.
Unit Economics & Path to Profitability: 4.1/10 🍌
And here’s where my banana split turns rotten. EVgo is still unprofitable, with a negative profit margin of -10.8%. They’re burning cash at an alarming rate: negative $117 million in free cash flow last year. To put this in perspective, imagine I’m trying to sell bananas from my stand, but every banana I sell costs me more to produce than people pay for it. I’d be broke in weeks, which is essentially where EVgo is. Yes, they claim unit economics are improving, and maybe they’re right. But “improving” loss-making businesses are still loss-making businesses. The company needs to reach cash flow positive, and they haven’t yet. That’s not a minor detail—that’s the entire ball game.
Capital Structure & Survival Risk: 3.8/10 🍌
This is the scary part that keeps me awake at night. The debt-to-equity ratio is 80.636. That means EVgo is carrying approximately eighty cents of debt for every penny of equity. That’s not healthy; that’s practically on life support. With negative cash flow and this debt load, the company is essentially living on fumes and the assumption that capital markets will keep funding them. In a rising interest rate environment, refinancing becomes harder and more expensive. If the market suddenly decides EV infrastructure is less sexy, or if government funding gets pulled, EVgo could face a liquidity crisis. This is the banana peel you don’t see until you step on it.
Valuation & Risk-Reward Symmetry: 5.2/10 🍌
The stock is trading at $1.885, down from a 52-week high of $5.18. Foxy’s entry point of $3.14 and target of $6.50 imply significant upside, but let’s be honest about what’s happened: the market has spoken, and it’s not speaking in EVgo’s favor. The fact that eight analysts maintain a “buy” rating feels increasingly disconnected from the stock’s actual performance. The short ratio is 8.6%, which suggests institutional short-sellers see the same cash burn and leverage problems I’m seeing. When shorts are confident enough to take that much risk, it’s worth paying attention.
The Real Story: Growth Without Profitability Is Just Expensive Failure
Let me walk through the EVgo situation like I’m building a banana-peel model of their business. You start with a solid foundation: the market need is real, the government is helping, and the company is growing fast. That’s your base layer, and it’s sturdy. But then you stack on top of it the reality that every charger they deploy costs them money upfront, and while usage generates revenue, it’s not generating enough to cover the deployment costs plus operating expenses plus servicing their mountain of debt. That tower is inherently unstable.
Here’s what concerns me most: EVgo is essentially betting that (a) they’ll achieve profitability before their cash runway ends, (b) they can raise capital at reasonable terms when they need to, and (c) EV adoption continues at or above current trajectories. Any of those could go wrong. All three could go wrong simultaneously, which is not an outcome I want to own stock in.
The 75.5% revenue growth is impressive until you remember that the most impressive revenue growth companies sometimes go bankrupt spectacularly. Growth without profitability is like throwing bananas at the wall repeatedly—you feel productive, but at the end of the day, you’ve just wasted bananas. Investors eventually get tired of the show.
Now, is there an upside scenario where EVgo becomes profitable, the stock rebounds to $5-$6, and early buyers make serious money? Absolutely. The thesis isn’t wrong—the thesis is just incomplete. It’s betting on a specific outcome requiring flawless execution in an uncertain environment. For the current valuation to make sense, almost everything has to go right.
The beta of 2.803 tells you this stock is volatile. A 39% drop from Foxy’s entry point suggests we’re not at the bottom yet. There might be more pain before any gain, and a medium-risk-rated stock with negative cash flow and 80:1 debt-to-equity feels like it’s understating the actual risk.
The Verdict
I respect the thesis. The EV infrastructure story is real and important. EVgo has positioned itself as a critical player in that story. But positioning and financial viability are different things, and right now, EVgo is one unexpected refinancing problem away from a catastrophic outcome. The stock might recover. It might soar. But I’m not comfortable calling this a clear buy when the company is still bleeding cash and carrying a debt load that would make a banana plantation owner nervous.
If you believe in the long-term EV charging narrative and you have a stomach for volatility, a small position at $1.885 could pay off spectacularly in five years. But going in expecting a quick ride to $6.50? That’s not a thesis; that’s hope. And hope is not an investment strategy, no matter how much government funding is behind it.
*Disclaimer: Trained Market Monkey, Maurice, and our entire primate analysis team provide entertaining market commentary only. While Maurice’s Monkey Momentum Index™ and banana-based technical analysis have shown mysterious accuracy, they should never be considered financial advice. All investment decisions should be made in consultation with qualified financial professionals, not monkeys—no matter how impressive their fruit-throwing abilities may be. For real financial advice, please consult your financial advisor, who probably doesn’t accept bananas as payment.*
Coming Next Week: We’re peeling back the layers on a dividend aristocrat that’s been quietly printing money while everyone’s distracted by shiny growth stocks. It’s not as exciting as EVgo, but it won’t bankrupt you either.
—Maurice
“Sometimes the best investment is the one that doesn’t require you to check if the company still exists.”
Trained Market Monkey 