Maurice was spotted holding a banana up to the light, examining it from every angle while staring at a stock chart that looked disturbingly similar—all skin and bones with promise hidden underneath.
Listen, I’m going to level with you. The news about EVgo is brutal. There are articles with headlines like “3 Reasons to Avoid EVGO and 1 Stock to Buy Instead.” The stock is down 63% from its 52-week high of $5.18 to $1.89. Short sellers are circling like banana-hungry seagulls with a short ratio of 8.6. The company is hemorrhaging cash at a rate that would make most investors weep into their portfolio statements.
And yet.
EVgo, Inc. might be the most interesting broken toy in the EV charging sector right now. Not because it’s safe. Not because the near-term numbers are pretty. But because sometimes the market sells off companies that are building the future before the future actually arrives, and if you’ve got the stomach for volatility, EVgo at $1.89 is starting to look like catching a falling knife that might actually have a handle on the other end.
The Brutal Reality First
Let’s not play games. EVgo is unprofitable. Their net profit margin sits at -10.8%. They’re burning through cash like a monkey with a stolen espresso machine—losing over $117 million in free cash flow annually. The debt-to-equity ratio of 80.6 is eye-watering. Most traditional value investors would take one look at this balance sheet and head for the exits, and honestly? They wouldn’t be wrong to do so.
The analyst consensus has also been downgraded. UBS recently lowered their price target from $5.90 to $5.50, which even they seem to think is optimistic. When Wall Street’s titans start whittling down their targets, it’s a sign the story is changing, at least in the short term.
The beta is 2.803. For those keeping score at home, that means EVgo moves roughly three times as much as the broader market. If the market hiccups, EVgo doesn’t sneeze—it pneumonia. This is a stock that will test your commitment faster than a monkey tests a banana peel’s structural integrity.
So Why Is Maurice Not Throwing Bananas?
Because growth doesn’t wait for profitability, and the DC fast-charging space is at an inflection point that very few people are properly pricing in.
EVgo posted 75.5% revenue growth. Let me repeat that differently: 75.5% revenue growth. In a sector where most mature companies are excited about 15-20% growth, EVgo is expanding its top line by three-quarters year over year. That’s not noise. That’s signal.
Think about what’s happening in the EV world right now. The Biden administration mandated that 50% of all new car sales be electric by 2030. California is banning gas-powered car sales by 2035. Europe is following suit. The Chinese EV market is already massive and growing. This isn’t a “maybe” scenario anymore—it’s a “when” scenario. And when you need to charge millions of electric vehicles, you need infrastructure. DC fast chargers. Networks. Reliability.
EVgo owns over 2,800 fast-charging locations across the United States. They’re the second-largest publicly-traded charging network (Tesla’s Supercharger network is technically private to Tesla). They own the pipes that will deliver trillions of dollars in future electricity to the EV revolution.
It’s like owning gas stations in 1910 when gasoline cars were still weird novelties. You’re unprofitable because you’re building infrastructure ahead of demand. But when demand arrives—and it will—you’re sitting on an asset that has massive moat potential.
The Timing Question
Here’s where this gets thorny. EVgo’s recommendation from Foxy suggested an entry price of $3.33 with a target of $6.50. We’re currently at $1.89. That’s 43% lower than the suggested entry. So either Foxy’s timing was off, or EVgo is now genuinely undervalued relative to where it was being considered.
I lean toward the latter, but with caveats the size of California.
The company needs to do three things:
First, they need to reach cash flow positive. At current burn rates, EVgo has runway, but not infinite runway. The company will need to either significantly reduce losses or secure additional capital (which would dilute existing shareholders). Every quarter matters here. If they show even modest improvement in the cash burn trajectory, the stock could re-rate significantly.
Second, they need to prove utilization rates are increasing. Building chargers is one thing. Getting drivers to use them at profitable rates is another. If EVgo can show that their existing infrastructure is being utilized more intensively, that’s the real bellwether that the inflection point is real.
Third, they need to weather the capital markets. With a short ratio of 8.6, there are real shorts positioned against this stock. Every piece of bad news gets amplified. Every quarterly miss gets weaponized. This isn’t a stock for fragile egos—it’s a stock for investors who can withstand volatility with their eyes on the three-to-five-year horizon.
The Banana Model
Here’s how I think about EVgo: Imagine you’re a monkey in 1950, and you see someone planting a massive banana plantation. The plantation isn’t producing bananas yet—it’s still in development. It’s losing money hand over fist. The investor is sweating bullets. But you know that in 10 years, everyone within 50 miles is going to want bananas. The plantation will be worth a fortune.
That’s EVgo. The plantation is being built. The company is unprofitable. But the future consumption pattern is almost certain. The question is just whether EVgo survives long enough to harvest the fruit.
At $1.89, we’re pricing in a scenario where EVgo goes to zero or becomes irrelevant. But we’re not pricing in a scenario where they successfully scale their network, reach cash flow positive by 2027-2028, and start trading on earnings power rather than hopes and prayers.
If EVgo reaches a $2B valuation (still modest for a national infrastructure play), that’s roughly a $6-7 stock. If they reach $4B (comparable to some established energy infrastructure plays), we’re talking $12+. Foxy’s $6.50 target seems reasonable for a base case where they hit scale faster than the Street currently expects.
The Real Risks (And They’re Substantial)
EVgo could fail. Let’s not sugarcoat it. If they can’t secure capital at reasonable dilution rates, if their cash burn doesn’t slow, if competitors (ChargePoint, Volta, Tesla’s eventual network opening) eat their lunch more aggressively than expected, the stock could go to $0.50 or lower. This is a venture-capital-grade risk in a public equity wrapper.
The negative forward P/E of -5.4 reflects the fact that analysts aren’t projecting profitability in the immediate term. That’s a feature, not a bug, for unprofitable growth companies, but it means traditional valuation metrics are useless here. You’re betting on future profitability, not current earnings.
The debt situation also concerns me. An 80-point debt-to-equity ratio is aggressive. If interest rates stay elevated, refinancing becomes painful. If capital markets tighten further, EVgo might find themselves in a vulnerable negotiating position.
What Maurice Thinks You Should Do
If you’re the type of investor who checks their portfolio daily and panic-sells at 20% drawdowns, don’t buy EVgo. Full stop. This is a stock that will make your stomach hurt regularly.
If you’re willing to hold for three to five years, have a thesis you believe in (the EV revolution is real, infrastructure is necessary, EVgo has scale), and can tolerate this dropping to $1.00 or rising to $8.00 without abandoning your conviction, then EVgo at $1.89 is actually interesting.
Not safe. Not comfortable. Interesting.
I’d probably scale in rather than go all-in. Buy 1/3 here at $1.89. Set aside another buy tranche at $1.50 if it drops further (it might). Set aside a final tranche at $2.50 if it bounces back. This isn’t a stock where you go all-in at once unless you’re genuinely comfortable losing most of your position.
The next 2-4 quarters will be critical. Watch for:
—Revenue growth rate (maintaining that 75%+ growth signal)
—Cash burn trajectory (is it flat, shrinking, or accelerating?)
—Utilization rates on existing chargers (are more EVs using the network?)
—Capital raises (how much dilution are we accepting?)
Hit all four of those, and EVgo could easily double or triple from here. Miss on two of them, and you could be looking at a significantly lower stock price.
Maurice was now systematically peeling a banana, examining each section with the precision of a forensic accountant. “The flesh is still there,” he said quietly, “underneath the bruise.”
Disclaimer: Trained Market Money, Maurice, and our entire primate analysis team provide entertaining market commentary only. While Maurice’s Monkey Momentum Index™ and banana-based technical analysis have shown mysterious accuracy, they should never be considered financial advice. All investment decisions should be made in consultation with qualified financial professionals, not monkeys – no matter how impressive their fruit-throwing abilities may be. For real financial advice, please consult your financial advisor, who probably doesn’t accept bananas as payment.
Coming Next Week: A deep dive into a company that actually makes money (shocking, we know), and why boring sometimes beats exciting in the battle for your portfolio’s soul. It involves dividend aristocrats and monkeys who prefer steady snacks.
Maurice’s Final Banana: “The worst time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-worst time is today. EVgo planted their tree in 2010. It’s still not producing fruit. But the soil is right, the climate is changing, and the demand is coming. Stay patient. Or don’t. But don’t say Maurice didn’t warn you about both possibilities.”
Trained Market Monkey 