Maurice was found suspended upside-down from his monitor stand, scribbling furious notes on a whiteboard covered in sketches of electrical outlets and banana peels arranged in charging-pattern formations.
Listen. I’ve been in this game long enough to recognize when the market gets distracted by shiny objects and misses the actual fruit in front of its face. Right now, everyone’s fighting over Tesla, worrying about interest rates, and generally acting like the EV charging infrastructure is some theoretical problem we’ll solve eventually. Meanwhile, there’s a small California company that’s built the actual network—not the hype, the network—and Wall Street’s treating it like yesterday’s banana peel.
That company is EVgo, Inc. (EVGO), and I’m genuinely fascinated by what’s happening here. Not in a “this is definitely going to the moon” way—that would be lazy analysis, and lazy analysis is how you end up bag-holding biotech stocks. But in a “this is a core infrastructure play being valued like a penny stock” kind of way.
Let me set the scene. It’s 2026, and the EV adoption curve is no longer theoretical. It’s happening. People are buying electric cars at a pace that would’ve seemed insane five years ago. But here’s the problem nobody wants to think about: where do they charge them? Sure, they can install Level 2 chargers at home if they’re wealthy enough. But for the millions of people in apartments, urban centers, and anyone taking a road trip? They need fast charging. DC fast charging. The kind that gets you from 10% to 80% in less than 30 minutes.
EVgo owns the second-largest network of DC fast chargers in the United States. Let me repeat that, because it matters: second largest. Not a startup beta-testing six locations. Not a speculative venture. An actual, operational network of charging stations that people use every single day.
And here’s where it gets interesting: the fundamentals are screaming while the stock price is whispering.
The Numbers That Made Me Throw Bananas at My Chart
EVgo reported 75.5% revenue growth. That’s not typo. That’s seventy-five and a half percent. In a market where most mature companies are thrilled with single-digit growth, you’ve got a company literally more than doubling its top line. When I saw that number, I literally threw a banana at my monitor. It stuck. That’s how I knew it was serious.
Revenue growth that steep tells you something crucial: there’s demand inflection happening. It’s not gradual, it’s not “we hope eventually people will use this.” It’s “we can’t build chargers fast enough to meet demand.” That’s the inflection point everyone talks about but rarely sees in real time.
But—and this is where my tiny monkey hands get shaky—the current stock price sits at $1.88. The 52-week high is $5.18. The company’s market cap is roughly $589 million. For context, that’s less than some private EV charging startups that have barely deployed a single station. The market is, to put it kindly, sleeping on this.
Now, let’s talk about why Wall Street is so nervous about EVgo. I’ve read the analyst reports. I’ve seen the headlines: “Cash-Burning Stock,” “Unprofitable Company,” “High Short Interest.” These aren’t wrong exactly, but they’re incomplete analysis—like describing a banana by measuring only its peel.
EVgo has a negative profit margin of -10.8%. Free cash flow is negative ($117 million in burn). The debt-to-equity ratio is stratospheric at 80.6x. Short interest is 8.6%. On paper, this looks like a trap. A well-marketed infrastructure company that’s burning cash and isn’t profitable. Why would anyone touch it?
Here’s why: because infrastructure companies don’t get profitable until they’ve built the infrastructure.
This is crucial, and I’m going to say it again because it’s the crux of the entire investment thesis: EVgo is in the construction and deployment phase. They’re literally building out the backbone of EV charging in America. Of course they’re cash-flow negative. They’re supposed to be. You don’t build roads and then immediately declare profits. You build roads, you depreciate them, and then—after years of usage—they become profitable assets.
Biden’s infrastructure bill pumped billions into EV charging deployment. A lot of that money is now flowing through to companies actually building the networks. EVgo received substantial federal funding. They’re using it to build. The burn is expected. The growth rate is the actual signal that matters.
The Infrastructure Play Nobody’s Treating Like an Infrastructure Play
Here’s my biggest frustration with how the market’s treating EVgo: they’re analyzing it like a retail company and judging it by retail metrics. EVgo is not a retail company. It’s infrastructure. And infrastructure businesses have wildly different financial profiles than, say, a shopping mall or a specialty retailer.
Real infrastructure doesn’t have quick payback periods. The Interstate Highway System wasn’t profitable in year two. It took decades. But once built, it became invaluable. EVgo is similar—they’re building assets that will generate revenue streams for 15-20 years. A DC fast charger costs $500,000 to install and lasts roughly two decades, generating revenue from every single car that charges there.
The question isn’t “Is EVgo profitable today?” The question is “Will the charging network they’re building be worth significantly more than the cost to build it?” The answer, assuming EV adoption continues (spoiler: it will), is obviously yes.
The high beta of 2.803 actually excites me in this context. Beta measures volatility relative to the market. EVgo’s is nearly 3x the market. Why? Because it’s a small-cap infrastructure play in an emerging market segment. As EV charging transitions from “experimental” to “essential,” the volatility should compress, and the stock should benefit from both multiple expansion and fundamental improvement simultaneously.
Think of it like this: if you’re planting a banana orchard, you don’t expect profits while you’re still planting trees. But once the orchard is mature? Every tree becomes an asset that produces for decades. EVgo’s planting season is active right now. The trees are still young. But the orchard is massive.
The Elephant in the Room (or the Monkey on My Shoulder)
I need to be honest about the risks because I’m not in the business of selling fairy tales. EVgo operates in a regulated utility-adjacent space. Regulatory changes could affect their business model. The company is still unprofitable and could dilute shareholders if they need additional capital. There’s meaningful competition—ChargePoint, Volta, and Tesla’s Supercharger network all exist.
The short interest at 8.6% suggests some people believe this is a value trap. They might be right. Infrastructure plays can be slow to materialize, and patience is expensive when you’re burning cash. The debt load is concerning if revenue growth slows unexpectedly.
And here’s the thing that keeps me slightly nervous: Wall Street’s general skepticism, reflected in those recent bearish articles, suggests the institutional money isn’t convinced yet. When professionals are this negative on something with this much growth, there’s usually a reason. Sometimes the market’s right and the upside is limited. Sometimes the market’s early and being early is the same as being wrong.
But—and I want to be clear—that skepticism is based on traditional financial metrics. It’s based on applying retail/SaaS analysis frameworks to an infrastructure company. It’s analytical category error.
The Path to $5.50 (Or Higher)
Foxy’s target price of $5.50 seems conservative but reasonable. That’s roughly 3x the current price. Here’s how I see the journey:
2026-2027: Deployment Accelerates. Federal funding continues flowing. EVgo hits 2,000+ stations (up from ~1,400 currently). Revenue growth remains stratospheric. Stock stays volatile but narrative starts shifting from “cash burner” to “infrastructure builder.”
2027-2028: Unit Economics Improve. As the network scales, per-unit installation costs drop, utilization increases, and revenue per charger climbs. Profitability path becomes visible. Institutions start paying attention. This is typically when the multiple re-rates upward.
2028+: The Inflection. EVgo reaches profitability or cash-flow breakeven. At that point, the company stops being a “speculative infrastructure play” and becomes “essential utility infrastructure with 15-year revenue visibility.” That’s when multiples can expand significantly.
A company with 75% revenue growth, a clear path to profitability, and essential infrastructure assets doesn’t trade at $1.88 forever. Even if I’m wrong about the magnitude of upside, the probability of significant multiple expansion seems high.
Why I’m Buying At This Price
I’m backing Foxy’s recommendation because the risk-reward is asymmetric in the right direction. The downside is limited—worst case, we’re already near bankruptcy valuations, so there’s not much further to fall. The upside is massive if the infrastructure thesis plays out over a 3-5 year horizon.
75% revenue growth is not an accident. It’s not irrational exuberance. It’s demand. Real, measurable demand for a scarce resource (fast EV charging infrastructure). EVgo is one of the few companies positioned to capture that demand at scale.
Is this a bet on continued EV adoption? Yes. Is it a bet on federal support for charging infrastructure? Yes. Is it a bet that the market will eventually recognize EVgo as essential infrastructure rather than a speculative EV play? Absolutely.
But those bets feel pretty good right now.
Disclaimer: Trained Market Money, Maurice, and our entire primate analysis team provide entertaining market commentary only. While Maurice’s Monkey Momentum Index™ and banana-based technical analysis have shown mysterious accuracy, they should never be considered financial advice. All investment decisions should be made in consultation with qualified financial professionals, not monkeys – no matter how impressive their fruit-throwing abilities may be. For real financial advice, please consult your financial advisor, who probably doesn’t accept bananas as payment.
Next week: We’re examining a software company that’s somehow still unprofitable while everyone’s treating it like the next unicorn. Maurice is preparing his “Overripe Fruit” analysis. Bring questions about SaaS unit economics and unreasonable expectations.
“Infrastructure doesn’t go viral,” Maurice muttered, peeling a banana thoughtfully. “But it does go profitable. Eventually.”
Trained Market Monkey 